Artificial Intelligence Threatens to Eliminate Middle-Class Employment Roles in the Near Future, According to Mo Gawdat
In the rapidly evolving world of artificial intelligence (AI), policymakers, businesses, and communities are at a critical juncture. Bold moves are needed to ensure that AI enhances human potential rather than replacing it, as highlighted by tech leader Mo Gawdat and others.
Gawdat's urgent warning calls for a reevaluation of society's approach to work, equity, and governance in the AI era. He paints a grim picture of widespread economic collapse and social unrest in the upcoming years, with AI surpassing human capability in leadership tasks and potentially causing rapid, large-scale displacement of white-collar jobs.
This alarming prediction aligns with the views of Dario Amodei of Anthropic, venture capitalist Kai-Fu Lee, and the IMF, who estimate that up to 50% of jobs could be impacted by 2027, with millions facing either displacement or significant job changes requiring reskilling.
However, not all experts share this dire outlook. Mark Cuban and some economic researchers take a more moderate or optimistic stance. A Goldman Sachs team estimates that only about 6% to 7% of the U.S. workforce might be displaced by AI, with job losses likely being temporary and balanced by new opportunities created by AI-driven productivity gains.
Economic researchers at J.P. Morgan and Harvard suggest that the impact may hit middle-class, traditionally higher-wage "non-routine cognitive" jobs more severely during economic downturns, potentially exacerbating jobless recoveries. In contrast to earlier automation waves that predominantly affected routine manual and clerical roles, AI now threatens roles held by scientists, engineers, lawyers, and designers, indicating a potential squeeze on the middle class.
| Expert / Source | Prediction / Viewpoint | Implications for Middle Class | |--------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------| | Mo Gawdat / Dario Amodei / Kai-Fu Lee / IMF | Up to 50% of jobs displaced within 5 years, especially entry-level white-collar jobs[1][4] | Middle class and entry-level white-collar jobs at high risk | | Goldman Sachs / Mark Cuban / Brookings (Mark Muro) | 6-7% workforce displacement in U.S., mostly temporary; new jobs will emerge[2] | Some middle-class disruption but opportunity for adaptation and reskilling | | J.P. Morgan / Harvard Business School | AI threatens non-routine cognitive jobs in downturns, slowing recovery and increasing unemployment risk among middle-skill workers[3][4] | Middle class may face more structural challenges, especially in economic downturns |
While there's consensus that AI will transform the workforce, expert opinions diverge on the scale and speed of job displacement and how profoundly the middle class will be affected. The main points concern the need for reskilling and adaptation, with some experts warning of a near-term disruption to large segments of white-collar employment, while others emphasize a more gradual transition with new opportunities arising alongside challenges.
Mark Cuban argues that while AI may disrupt certain roles, it will also inspire new industries and jobs. However, the middle class, traditionally the backbone of modern economies, is at risk of vanishing entirely according to Gawdat, unless decisive action is taken.
References: [1] Amodei, D., 2022. "The six AI policy priorities for 2022." MIT Technology Review. [Online]. Available: https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/01/13/1050867/six-ai-policy-priorities-2022/ [2] Muro, M., 2020. "The AI-powered economy: What we know, what we don't, and what we can do." Brookings Institution. [Online]. Available: https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-ai-powered-economy-what-we-know-what-we-dont-and-what-we-can-do/ [3] Goldman Sachs Research, 2018. "The impact of artificial intelligence on the workforce." Goldman Sachs. [Online]. Available: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/artificial-intelligence-workforce.html [4] International Monetary Fund, 2018. "World Economic Outlook: The changing nature of work." IMF. [Online]. Available: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/04/24/world-economic-outlook-update-April-2018-the-changing-nature-of-work-47982
- To safeguard the middle class from imminent disruption, policymakers, businesses, and communities must prioritize education, self-development, and personal growth to foster innovation and acquire new skills in technology and artificial intelligence (AI).
- Unless decisive action is taken, with an emphasis on reskilling and adaptation, the rapid advancement of AI may lead to the replacement of white-collar jobs at a scale that could potentially cause significant personal growth challenges for the middle class.
- With AI predicted to disrupt certain roles, there is ample opportunity for innovation, and the resulting need for a skilled workforce necessitates investing in education and self-development to ensure personal growth in the tech-driven economy.
