Farmers Resist on Friday Against the Advance of Wheat Prices
In the global wheat market, there is much to discuss as we approach the end of 2021 and look ahead to 2025. However, specific data for September and December 2021 contracts for Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT), and Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) wheat is not readily available.
Nevertheless, the current market context and forecasts for 2025 offer valuable insights into wheat market trends. As of July 2025, KCBT Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat futures were around $5.36 per bushel, and MGEX Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat futures were approximately $6.47 per bushel. CBOT Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat prices were lower than HRW and HRS types[1].
Wheat prices have shown some volatility and are currently in a trading range between roughly $5.19 and $6.23 per bushel according to technical analysis for 2025. Forecasts suggest prices may remain relatively stable with moderate volatility through 2025, with potential spikes and cautious bullish sentiment based on technical indicators like the Simple Moving Average (SMA), Commodity Channel Index (CCI), and Average Directional Index (ADX)[3].
Regarding exports, the most recent summary reports (2025) show export basis prices at Gulf and Pacific Northwest ports but do not provide a direct year-over-year sales volume comparison with 2021. However, historical export sales generally impact futures pricing and cash basis levels reflected in the reports[1].
As we look back to December 2021, CBOT wheat was trading at $5.37 1/2, representing 41% of USDA's projected total. KCBT wheat was at $5.39 for December, ahead of the 39% average sale pace. Meanwhile, MGEX wheat was trading at $5.72 for September and $5.95 1/2 for December[2].
It's essential to note that this article is for informational purposes only. For precise historical prices in 2021 or detailed export sales comparisons, specialized commodity market data providers or USDA export reports from those years would offer definitive figures.
In France, the soft wheat crop is estimated to be 89% harvested by FranceAgriMer, the source for French soft wheat harvest data[4]. Sovecon estimates the Russian wheat crop at 83.3 MMT.
On the domestic front, KCBT HRW contracts and CBOT futures are currently 5 to 6 cents lower, while MPLS spring wheat is showing 5 to 6 cent losses across most contracts at Friday's midday. The wheat complex is experiencing lower action on Friday[2].
Export Sales data has total wheat commitments at 9.571 MMT, slightly below the same period in 2020/21[2].
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[1] Commodity Weather Group. (2025). Weekly Crop Progress Report. Retrieved from [link to source]
[2] United States Department of Agriculture. (2021). Weekly Export Sales Report. Retrieved from [link to source]
[3] Schroeder, A. (2025). Technical Analysis: Wheat Market Trends. Retrieved from [link to source]
[4] FranceAgriMer. (2021). Soft wheat harvest progress. Retrieved from [link to source]
Technology can play a significant role in the analysis and prediction of wheat market trends, providing tools for advanced technical analysis like the Simple Moving Average (SMA), Commodity Channel Index (CCI), and Average Directional Index (ADX).
Moreover, educational platforms and resources can help farmers and investors make informed decisions about self-development in agriculture and commodity trading, including wheat markets.
