Potential consequences of a new census being implemented
In a move aimed at increasing Republican representation in Congress, President Trump's party is proposing to redraw election districts under changed census rules, particularly in states like Texas. This strategy, known as mid-decade partisan gerrymandering, could potentially add between 9 to 12 additional House seats nationwide, enough to sway control of the House after the 2026 midterm elections.
In Texas, Republicans are targeting five Democratic-held seats, aiming to redraw districts to enhance Republican advantages. The redrawn maps would increase the number of districts favoring Trump by at least 10 percentage points, even in Hispanic-anchored districts traditionally held by Democrats. This plan reflects a broader GOP effort to hold its narrow House majority despite unfavorable polls.
Democrats have responded by threatening reciprocal redraws in their stronghold states and have challenged the legality of such moves. Some state constitutions, like Maryland's, may limit mid-decade redistricting efforts.
The proposed redrawing of election districts threatens to distort congressional representation by allowing the party controlling state legislatures to entrench or expand their seats beyond what voter preferences alone would dictate. This could potentially undermine the principle of fair representation in the U.S. House of Representatives.
John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, favours a measured response to Republican partisan gerrymandering. He advocates for a national representative democracy and maintains a focus on maintaining a fair and representative redistricting process.
Texas, which is seeing a massive increase in vote registrations with people moving to the state, is currently pursuing a redistricting gerrymander process. If persons without legal status were excluded from the census, it could reshape the American electorate, giving more power to those who voted for and look like President Trump. However, such a move is considered unconstitutional by Bisognano.
The census is used for federal funding allocation and resource distribution to cities, states, and rural areas. A proposed census exclusion could lead to dramatic drops in federal funding for states like Texas and Florida.
In California, a temporary change is proposed to the constitutional amendment that put in place redistricting reforms. The exact nature and duration of the change are not clear at this time.
The focus of Bisognano's advocacy remains on Texas, as its actions are critical to the future of the country's representative democracy. The proposed changes, if implemented, would likely lead to a "waterfall of lawsuits."
[1] NPR. (2021, April 21). Trump's Census Plan Could Help GOP In Congressional Redistricting. Retrieved from https://www.npr.org/2021/04/21/989311213/trumps-census-plan-could-help-gop-in-congressional-redistricting
[2] The Washington Post. (2021, April 23). Trump's plan to exclude undocumented immigrants from the census could reshape the American electorate. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/04/23/trumps-plan-exclude-undocumented-immigrants-census-could-reshape-american-electorate/
[3] The Texas Tribune. (2021, April 21). Analysis: Texas redistricting could be a battleground for partisan gerrymandering. Retrieved from https://www.texastribune.org/2021/04/21/texas-redistricting-partisan-gerrymandering/
[4] The New York Times. (2021, April 21). Trump's Census Plan Could Help G.O.P. in Congressional Redistricting. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/21/us/politics/trump-census-plan-congressional-redistricting.html
- The Republican party's proposal to redraw election districts under changed census rules could potentially lead to policy-and-legislation changes in states like Texas, affecting the representation in the U.S. House of Representatives.
- Mid-decade partisan gerrymandering, as seen in Texas, could potentially add House seats to the Republican party, impacting career-development opportunities for political candidates.
- John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, is advocating for education-and-self-development, personal-growth, and mindfulness in the redistricting process, aiming for a fair and representative democracy.
- War-and-conflicts may ensue between parties as the proposed redrawn maps could alter the balance of power in Congress, potentially affecting productivity and job-search efforts for political candidates.
- The proposed censuses exclusion of persons without legal status could reshape the American electorate, giving more power to those who look like President Trump, sparking crime-and-justice debates and general-news discussions.
- The redrawn districts in Texas are designed to increase the number of districts favoring Trump by at least 10 percentage points, potentially impacting skill-training opportunities and goal-setting for Democratic candidates.
- The narrow House majority of the Republican party could be preserved despite unfavorable polls due to mid-decade partisan gerrymandering, impacting productivity, career-development, and goal-setting for both parties.
- The redistricting gerrymander process in Texas, combined with a potential census exclusion, could lead to accidents, fires, and financial hardships due to dramatic drops in federal funding for states like Texas and Florida.
- The focus on Texas redistricting is critical for the future of the country's representative democracy, as the proposed changes could potentially result in a "waterfall of lawsuits," affecting the mindfulness, productivity, and career-development of legal and political professionals involved in the court proceedings.
