With Rising Worries over Avian Flu, don't Neglect the Importance of Maintaining Normalcy Perspective
With the avian flu sparking concerns of a new outbreak, it's worth recalling how few governments, corporations, and individuals adequately reacted to the last pandemic.
The major factor at play was the 'conformist bias'.
The conformist bias makes people overestimate the likelihood of regular occurrences and their minimal impact. It results in a misguided belief that the future will bear resemblance to the past, even in the face of evident contradictions. This bias is prevalent across various domains, and its effects on businesses can be exceptionally devastating, especially in today's volatile, unpredictable, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) era.
A notable demonstration of conformist bias in modern times is the international response to the COVID-19 situation. Despite warnings from health experts, many businesses failed to plan for supply chain interruptions, changes in consumer patterns, and workforce challenges. Companies that underestimated the pandemic ended up facing severe workflow and financial difficulties; meanwhile, those that swiftly acclimated to the 'new normal' managed to prosper.
Similarly, the advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have brought to light instances of conformist bias. For some time, executives in traditional industries disregarded AI as a distant issue, only to find their industries drastically altered by rapid AI development.
How Conformist Bias Influences Decision-Making
Conformist bias can have several detrimental consequences on decision-making.
Firstly, it can delay action in moments when action is required, as leaders often wait until the issue becomes apparent before acting. This delay can result in lost opportunities or preventable losses.
Secondly, it can result in inadequate preparedness, causing organizations to overlook significant contingency planning, making them susceptible to crises.
Lastly, it can prompt leaders to underestimate risks by dismissing their potential impact, leading to insufficient risk management strategies and overexposure.
For instance, several retailers underestimated the shift towards online shopping until the pandemic sped up their digital transformation plans. Those who hadn't prepared for this shift struggled to remain competitive.
6 Methods to Conquer Conformist Bias
Escaping conformist bias calls for intentional effort and strategic interventions, such as:
- Implement Devil's Advocacy. Devil's advocacy is an organized method for testing assumptions, exposing blind spots, and assessing various strategies. By simulating challenges and engaging in analytical exercises, organizations can break the comfort zones fostered by conformist bias. For instance, conducting a mortality analysis can help identify potential pitfalls before implementing a plan.
- Promote Diverse Viewpoints. Conformist bias often thrives in monocultural groups where everybody shares common experiences and assumptions. Encouraging diverse perspectives in decision-making processes—either through cross-functional teams or external counselors—can challenge groupthink and uncover hidden risks.
- Engage in Scenario Planning. Developing and regularly reviewing scenario plans for various disruptive scenarios enables organizations to act decisively rather than reactively. By envisioning worst-case, best-case, and most-probable scenarios, organizations can prepare to respond effectively. For example, many energy companies use scenario planning to anticipate shifts in regulatory policies and market dynamics.
- Cultivate a Culture of Vigilance. Encourage employees to voice their concerns and challenge established beliefs without fear of retribution. Leaders should lead by example by welcoming feedback and questioning their own assumptions. This vigilant culture ensures that emerging risks are identified early.
- Use Data and Trend Analysis. Incorporating big data analytics and keeping an eye on industry trends can assist businesses in detecting early warning signs of disruption. For instance, tracking customer behavior through predictive analytics can uncover changes in demand before they fully materialize.
- Conduct Regular "What-if" Exercises. Regularly engaging teams in "what-if" simulations can help identify vulnerabilities and encourage proactive responses. These exercises can reveal weaknesses and inspire preventive actions.
Conformist bias is a subtle yet powerful force that can sabotage even the most well-meaning leaders. In an era of rapid change, the idea that business as usual will persist is a recipe for failure. Overcoming conformist bias requires a mindset that values adaptability, analytical thinking, and resilience. Organizations that embody these qualities will not only handle disruptions more effectively but will also uncover hidden possibilities within the chaos—whether that chaos is triggered by another pandemic or any other crisis.
In the context of crisis management, the 'normalcy bias' often coincides with the conformist bias and can hinder effective 'red teaming' and 'decision-making'. Red teaming involves challenging assumptions and planning for various scenarios, but the normalcy bias can make individuals and organizations believe that a crisis similar to past ones is imminent, leading to inadequate preparations for unforeseen events. For instance, despite the risk of an avian flu or 'bird flu' outbreak causing significant disruptions, many organizations may underestimate its impact due to the normalcy bias, similar to how some companies were unprepared for the full extent of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Moreover, understanding the prevalence of conformist bias in decision-making could be beneficial in 'red team thinking'. Recognizing this bias allows us to actively seek out opposing viewpoints, engage in diverse perspectives, and strengthen contingency plans. For instance, when considering the potential implications of an avian flu outbreak, a 'red team' could conduct a mortality analysis to identify potential pitfalls, challenge assumptions, and improve risk management strategies.
Incorporating 'red team thinking' and actively addressing conformist bias in decision-making can be advantageous in dealing with crises such as the avian flu, as well as in ongoing business operations in the volatile and unpredictable VUCA era.
